Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 33.763125 40.014664 46.859930 54.880336 63.987194 73.973177 85.717128
2025-01-26 25.155643 33.619807 43.779994 56.733928 72.658097 91.435841 115.080545
2025-02-02 21.123837 30.903441 43.465735 60.476909 82.567740 109.919337 145.933746
2025-02-09 17.702683 28.046316 42.136509 62.212075 89.487955 124.614932 172.533308
2025-02-16 14.976637 25.531946 40.695915 63.296681 95.231988 137.762810 197.530892
2025-02-23 12.544948 22.962796 38.710061 63.191223 99.054080 148.288256 219.337604
2025-03-02 10.333928 20.316785 36.185825 61.887169 100.855596 155.902843 237.324179
2025-03-09 8.767462 18.436832 34.543029 61.619437 103.958600 165.297022 258.002129
2025-03-16 6.911332 15.697955 31.126233 58.155699 101.865411 166.932221 267.555093
2025-03-23 6.208643 14.958576 30.945895 59.824728 107.685324 180.341674 294.561015
2025-03-30 5.227161 13.485941 29.278951 58.807057 109.097681 187.108259 311.962132
2025-04-06 4.911931 13.329037 29.967806 61.856560 117.229768 204.437388 345.767481
2025-04-13 3.782893 11.258297 26.945282 58.356042 114.775690 205.991919 357.022172
2025-04-20 3.367286 10.742120 26.916672 60.349038 121.869106 223.191211 393.492424
2025-04-27 3.172704 10.721531 27.886571 64.286789 132.571765 246.695149 440.789055
2025-05-04 2.828686 10.230248 27.781807 66.110539 139.602461 264.469306 479.655470
2025-05-11 2.482346 9.640260 27.366275 67.250207 145.425393 280.452403 516.212523
2025-05-18 2.108403 8.861749 26.396876 67.139405 148.886512 292.551072 546.851023
2025-05-25 1.726429 7.932501 24.912945 65.769112 149.828021 300.303978 570.542439
2025-06-01 1.457741 7.279492 23.991522 65.487748 152.792735 311.642176 600.558807
2025-06-08 1.101496 6.168447 21.684349 61.846633 148.842658 310.488831 609.310371
2025-06-15 0.992225 5.954341 21.740380 63.601372 155.806200 329.190955 652.673680
2025-06-22 0.811283 5.367589 20.649276 62.531494 156.890604 337.193163 677.733818